High Impact Weather Prediction Project
Funded by Hurricane Sandy Disaster Relief Supplemental Appropriations
Workgroup Lead: Jeff Whitaker (ESRL/PSD)
A primary goal of this project is to develop a global cloud-permitting (~3km resolution) forecast capability.
This activity will focus on the testing and evaluation of global non-hydrostatic dynamical cores under development at EMC, GFDL, ESRL, NPS/NRL and NCAR to assess their potential for achieving the project goals. The following tests will be required for participants:
- Idealized tests: Cases to be agreed upon by all participants during the first few months of the project. All participants will run these idealized test cases (which will focus on the ability of the models to accurately simulate non-hydrostatic phenomena such as gravity waves and supercell thunderstorms). These tests will follow the format of the Dynamical Core Model Intercomparison Project (DCMIP; http://earthsystemcog.org/projects/dcmip-2012/)
In this year, the focus will shift to evaluating the models in the context of real-data global forecasts:
- Real-data 10-day forecasts over a 1-year period (similar to that performed for hydrostatic models as described under Section 3.1. The individual modeling groups also are required to run at least two real-data cases at 3-km global resolution for forecasts of 3-5 days (cases to be determined).
- The results of these real-data and idealized tests will be synthesized in a report at the end of year 2. This report will be used to decide which model or models will be the focus of further HIWPP funded development in year 3, including data assimilation and ensemble development (section 3.1.1), parameterization development (section 3.1.2) and MPFG/GPU optimization (section 3.2.3).