High Impact Weather Prediction Project
Funded by Hurricane Sandy Disaster Relief Supplemental Appropriations
Task Leads: S. Gopalakrishnan (AOML) and Vijay Tallapragada (NCEP)
More than 80-90% of the deaths due to Tropical Cyclones are caused by fresh water flooding and storm surge. Current high-resolution operational mesoscale models for hurricanes, such as the HWRF system, are more focused on the wind intensity predictions and do not address land-fall related issue. Land and tropical cyclone interactions are complex to model and require a multi scale modeling system. The aim of this task is to create a multi-scale hurricane prediction system working at 3 km resolution providing improved predictions of land-falling tropical cyclones.
AOML and NCEP along with other HIWPP partners will participate in this project to accomplish or accelerate the development of a fully two-way interactive moving nested, multi scale, non-hydrostatic modeling system using NMMB in the NEMS framework. This effort will greatly enhance the development of NOAA's future numerical guidance strategy necessary to improve our understanding and prediction of hurricanes and their impacts in order to save lives. A major goal of this proposed effort is to improve our understanding of the processes that influence the impacts from these devastating storms through better representation of the physical processes within the HWRF/NMMB and NEMS frameworks. The HWRF nests will be designed to operate at about 3 km resolution desired for capturing tropical cyclone inner core process and interactions with the large-scale environment, critical for improving not only track and intensity predictions but also rainfall and size predictions.